As Waikato district grows, Council needs to plan for the infrastructure, services and facilities our communities may need in the future. The district is currently experiencing the second fastest growing population of any district across New Zealand.
Growth projections help Council understand how the district's population, households and labour force may grow and change over time. This helps inform planning for things like roads, water services, parks, community facilities, housing capacity and future investment.
Projections are not predictions or decisions. They are based on the best information available and help Council prepare for different growth possibilities.
Exploring the projections
Population and growth projections (interactive tool)
This tool helps you explore how growth may vary across different parts of the district.
Use this tool to view projected population, household and demographic change across Waikato District, including the six towns expected to experience most growth.
View the population and growth projections
Urban and rural projections
Use this tool to explore all 38 urban and rural areas that are used specifically for planning.
View the urban and rural projections
Noting, some data sets such as age and labour force are only available at district level.
Tool tip: To use the interactive projections tool:
- Open the file in a web browser or supported app
- Select “open in app/browser” (do not use preview mode)
- Navigate through the sections to explore:
- population growth
- household changes
- demographic trends
- Interact with the charts and maps to view more detail, slowing the arrow across the years to see how the data sets are projected to change over time.
What the projections are based on
The projections are based on demographic modelling and include a range of growth scenarios. Demographic modelling uses information about how the districts population is changing, including:
- births and deaths
- people moving into, out of and within the district
- changes in the number and size of the households
- changes in the labour force.
This projection data is provided by the Population, Household, Demographic and Labour Force Projections Report 2025, prepared by the Institute for Population Research at the University of Waikato using 2023 Census data.
This work is commissioned by Future Proof and follows an established regional approach of updating growth projections after each census. The previous projections (based on the 2018 Census) informed the 2025–2034 Long Term Plan.
The adopted Growth Scenario
Council adopted the High Growth Scenario from the 2025 projection series on 9 June 2026.
This scenario was selected because it:
- best reflects the scale and pace of growth currently being experienced
- provides a robust basis for long-term planning
- aligns with Future Proof Councils to enable regional planning activities such as the Housing and Business Land Capacity Assessment (HBA)
- complies with national growth planning direction, including the National Policy Statement for Urban Development (NPS-UD).
The adopted High growth scenario is Council’s consistent planning assumption and evidence base for growth planning for infrastructure and services.
How Council uses growth projections
Growth projections help Council plan for future growth. They are a key tool to support decision making about where growth may happen, when infrastructure such as roads, pipes and facilities may be needed. They also support Council to know when services such as rubbish collection might need to expand.
Council uses growth projections to support a range of planning work, including:
Strategic planning
- Waikato 2070 – Councils Growth and Economic Development Strategy
- Town and Structure plans
- Housing and business development needs
Infrastructure and services
- Asset Management Plans
- Infrastructure Strategies (transport, three waters, parks)
- Determining level of services
Financial planning
- LTP and Annual Plans
- Development Contributions Policy.
Things to keep in mind
Growth projections are planning tools, they are not exact predications of the future. Projections may vary from actual growth as they rely on assumptions that may change over time, including:
- economic conditions, policy changes, infrastructure delivery and market behaviour
- actual growth may happen faster or slower than projected
- growth may happen at different locations than expected
- They represent plausible scenarios, not fixed outcomes.
Council will continue to monitor actual growth against the projections and update planning as new information becomes available.